"Thirteen Five" photovoltaic power generation installed target or down
"Both for the first half of the super-expected installation applause, but also for the second half of the uncertainty was a trace of concern." Hang Yu Solar Technology Co., Ltd. Chairman Ding Wenlei "mixed" to describe the current PV industry's general mentality.
In the "630" and a series of policies, driven by the first half of this year, China's new installed capacity of photovoltaic power generation increased by 3 times to 20GW or more. The industry to judge, the first show the situation after the first tight loose in the second half to be alert to a new round of supply and demand imbalance, mergers and reorganization is inevitable.
It is noteworthy that, taking into account the current abandon wind abandoned light situation, the "thirth Five-Year" photovoltaic planning objectives or reduction, and will be more emphasis on competitive allocation, this year's national level announced eight demonstration bases at the same time, Start the "Leader" program.
In the first half of the new installed capacity increased by three times
December 22 last year, the National Development and Reform Commission issued "on the improvement of onshore wind power photovoltaic power generation benchmarking price policy notice," clear after January 1, 2016 for the record and into the annual scale of photovoltaic power generation projects, the implementation of 2016 photovoltaic power generation Benchmark price. But if not in June 30, 2016 by the completion of grid-connected power generation, will implement the new price standards. This means that Class I, II and III of the photovoltaic power station power subsidies will be reduced by 0.1 yuan, 0.07 yuan and 0.02 yuan.
At this point, June 30 to become a crucial point in time, companies have Qiangzhuang. In the July 21, "the first half of 2016 industrial development review and the second half of the Outlook Seminar", the China Photovoltaic Industry Association, said the Secretary-General Wang Bohua, 2015, China's new photovoltaic power generation installed more than 15.1GW, the cumulative Installed capacity of 43GW; the first half of this year, the new installed capacity of more than 20GW, equivalent to the same period last year (new 7.73GW) nearly 3 times.
"Economic Information Daily" reporter interviewed a number of photovoltaic upstream and downstream enterprises learned that by last year and this year the domestic application market demand, the majority of polysilicon enterprises full production, or even in short supply, resulting in rapid price soaring. 2016 polysilicon production in the first half of 9.5 million tons, an increase of 28.4%, imports amounted to 60,000 tons, the main business of more than 20% gross margin.
Other manufacturing sectors also have a similar situation. China Photovoltaic Industry Association data show that the first half of 2016 PV module production is about 27GW, compared to the first half of 19.6GW output, an increase of 37.8%. Among them, the 42 component enterprises have been reported average capacity utilization rate of 88.6% over the first half of last year increased by 9 percentage points. Most of the PV module business profitability, the top ten corporate profitability in more than 15%; from 38 through the normative conditions of the components business in the first half of 2016 business situation, only five companies loss, the average profit margin of 5% An increase of 3 percentage points over the same period last year.
This hot situation from the performance of listed companies can also glimpse. Wind data show that as of July 22, there are 25 A-share listed companies listed on the first half of the performance notice, of which 19 net profit forecast, accounting for 76% of the number of enterprises have been announced.
But it is worth noting that the signs of differentiation between enterprises is also increasing. "Downstream procurement companies for small group companies can live long-term survival and honor the pledge commitment is generally skeptical, favor the brand of large enterprises." Wang Bohua said, first-line enterprises are mostly full orders, in order to maintain the international market shipments , No longer accept domestic orders, most of the foundry for small and medium enterprises and to provide their own power plant construction.
At the same time, power, land, subsidies, "three big mountains" pressure is still there. National Energy Board data show that in 2015 the wind power to abandon the wind rate of 15%, becoming the worst ever in China to abandon the wind in the first quarter of 2016 continued to climb to 26%. While the first quarter of the country to abandon the light of about 1.9 billion kwh of electricity, Gansu and Xinjiang, respectively, the rate of 39% and 52%, significantly higher than the end of 2015 31% and 26%.
"Under the pressure of economic downturn, the problem of limited power grim, short-term no solution." Wang Bohua that the economic pressure of new energy and fossil energy interests of the game, the full acquisition of renewable energy can not be effectively implemented, power grid construction is not complete and so on Is an important factor in the problem of power rationing. At the same time, photovoltaic subsidies arrears problem has not yet been properly resolved, a short period of time difficult to timely release. In addition, the nature of the land and the problem of land taxes began to appear.
"Thirteen Five" installed target or down
"This year the overall situation is basically good, showing the situation after the first loose." Wang Bohua judge, the first half of the fiery domestic PV market situation unexpected, the second half of the leader in the project, 2016 projects, poverty alleviation and distributed projects Driven, there is still room for development, is expected to increase the amount of photovoltaic network capacity is expected to reach 30GW, will remain the world's first; and foreign markets are just beginning to force the second half, the US and Indian markets will continue to maintain high growth momentum, While the Japanese and European markets remain stable, emerging photovoltaic markets such as Africa has gradually begun to take hold.
But it is worth noting that the upstream and downstream development need to pay attention to rhythm, or turn into a new round of supply and demand imbalance. In fact, the signs have emerged. Due to the expansion of its own production capacity of large enterprises and future competition, some small and medium enterprises lack of scale and brand, with the second half of the market cooling, restructuring, integration is the trend, the number of component companies will be reduced. "Merger and reorganization is must face." Ministry of Industry and Information Technology Department of Electronic Information Division, said Wang Weiwei, director of the Department of Electronics, and the relevant departments will work together to develop specific business evaluation standards.
Xingyi Teng, deputy director of the National Energy Administration's new energy and renewable energy division, also said that the situation in the first half of the year, described as "hot", even signs of overheating, hope the industry is steady rather than fluctuating, Overheating to keep sober, the recent few provinces have issued a document to control the pace of development. According to the "thirteen five" overall energy planning, adhere to the "clean and efficient low carbon sustainable development" as the keynote, so the trend of photovoltaic development is very clear. However, taking into account the current actual situation, whether traditional or renewable energy, "13th Five-Year Plan" during the planning objectives will be appropriately reduced.
Prior to this, photovoltaic "13th Five-Year Plan" installed target is 150GW. "Economic Information Daily" reporter has learned that the "thirteen five" photovoltaic development rhythm will be adjusted during the first to focus on digesting the stock, and then optimize the development of incremental. Mainly to gradually weaken the large base of centralized development model, the establishment of the "three North" area abandonment rate and abandonment rate monitoring and early warning assessment mechanism, in principle, more than 10% of abandoned air disposal rate of the region to postpone the arrangements for new projects. And strive to use two years to abandon the wind, abandoned light control at a reasonable level, after three years to expand the scale of construction.
In contrast, distributed PV will be given priority in promoting the integration of photovoltaic power generation with roofs, tidal flats, lakes, fish ponds and agricultural greenhouses and related industries, and expanding the scale of distributed use in the eastern and southern regions.
More provinces to push the leader program
In the scale down at the same time, the competitive allocation has become the main policy-oriented. In fact, since 2015, the National Energy Board began to raise the standards of photovoltaic products, quality and threshold in order to guide the domestic PV manufacturing industry from the pursuit of scale expansion to focus on quality and efficiency changes, from high subsidy policy dependence mode to low subsidies competition Force to improve the mode of change.
In addition to the strength of the developer, advanced technology (batteries, components) and the Internet is the key to winning the bid. In addition to the strength of the developer, advanced technology (batteries, components) and the bid is the key to the successful bidder. According to requirements, polycrystalline silicon cell components and single-crystal silicon solar cell module to achieve the photoelectric conversion efficiency of 16.5% and 17% or more.
It is understood that the first 100MW demonstration base last year settled in Datong, scheduled for the end of June this year and power generation. According to "issued on the construction of photovoltaic power generation in 2016 the implementation of the program notice," PV this year, "leader" a total of eight bases, the scale was raised to 5.5GW, accounting for more than the national annual total installed capacity of photovoltaic indicators 1/3. Before the two leaders of Shanxi base, Inner Mongolia Baotou leader base to enter the bidding process, by the end of September all base must determine the development of the main.
"With the successful experience of the first phase, this year's PV leader project will be implemented more smoothly." Wang Bohua said, "PV leader program" will continue to further boost the efficient battery market demand.
More importantly, the "leader" program has been independently extended to the provincial level. December 8, 2015, Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region Development and Reform Commission issued the first local PV New Deal, requiring all PV projects in Ningxia in 2016 must meet the "leader" of the corresponding targets. In less than a week after the time, light-rich resources in Xinjiang made the same request. Xinjiang Development and Reform Commission issued a document that, in order to ensure that Zhundong new energy base of advanced equipment, photovoltaic power generation projects should be preferred "leader" technical standard components.
Jiangsu Provincial Development and Reform Commission in the July 20 also issued "on the implementation of 2016 Provincial PV" leader "program optimization work notice," said 2016 arrangements for 300,000 kilowatts of ordinary photovoltaic power plant new construction scale, the implementation of the province photovoltaic "leader "plan. The Inner Mongolia recently issued "ordinary photovoltaic power plant project competitive allocation pilot scheme (draft)", the component conversion efficiency also made clear requirements.
"Leader base continues to expand, many places are actively planning to prevent the leader base as a disguised form of super-scale development channels, to avoid becoming a local cash cow. Technological progress, reduce costs, institutional and institutional innovation macro objectives. "Xing Yi Teng said.